Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation (Seasonally Adjusted)
For the second consecutive month, Ohio's reported unemployment rate is in conflict with current economic trends, prompting the Ohio Department of Job and Family Service to question the federally supplied data used in its computation. Based on that data, Ohio's rate was computed at 3.5 percent in March, down from a revised 3.8 percent in February. The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3 percent in March.
"The unemployment rate generated by the prescribed formula for the month of March does not reflect the increased number of layoffs, unemployment compensation claim levels and decreases in manufacturing employment experienced in this state over the last two months," said ODJFS Interim Director Jo Ann Davidson. "Our data indicates that Ohio's unemployment trend should be comparable to the U. S. and other surrounding manufacturing states' which is increasing slightly, not the opposite sharp downward trend of the last two months depicted by the model. We have raised our concerns with the U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and asked how the estimating model could produce such a misleading unemployment rate."
At face value, the rates of 3.8 and 3.5 percent unemployment in the last two months would not only suggest Ohio's economy has weathered the recent economic slowdown, but is actually growing at a rate that matches or exceeds the economic growth of the 1990s. A more in depth review including data not used in the calculation shows that manufacturing performance continues to be weak with further losses in employment over the month, and unemployment compensation claims continue to be 40 to 50 percent higher than a year ago.
Analysts are particularly concerned that unemployment statistics from the Current Population Survey are in sharp contradiction with the level of new and continuing Ohio unemployment compensation claims. For example, the unemployment subcategories of involuntary job losers (layoffs, business closing, etc.) and particularly entrants and reentrants into the labor force, have been decreasing according to the Current Population Survey. These differences are not reconcilable. Historically, reduced unemployment claim levels have corresponded with any sustained lowering of the unemployment rate. January 1970 was the last time the unemployment rate was at 3.5 or lower.
The model used to calculate monthly rates indicates the number of Ohioans with jobs was 5.682 million in March, up from 5.678 in February. The number of workers unemployed in March, according to the model, was 209,000, declining from 223,000 in February. The March unemployment rate for Ohio was down from 4.1 percent in March 2000. Over the year, the number of Ohioans working has increased by 178,000, up from 5.504 million. The number unemployed has decreased by 27,000 over the year from 236,000.
Ohio County Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
According to the prescribed formula, the March 2001 county unemployment rates ranged from a low of 1.6 percent in Delaware County to a high of 14.9 percent in Morgan County. Rates decreased in most of the counties. County rates are not seasonally adjusted. The comparable rate for Ohio for March was 3.8 percent. Seasonal adjustment is used to remove fluctuations in unemployment and labor trends that normally occur with changes of the season (see "Concepts and Methodology" at http://lmi.state.oh.us/LAUS/LAUS-Concepts.htm for more details).
Eight counties had unemployment rates below 2.8 percent in March. The counties with the lowest rates, other than Delaware were: Franklin County, (2.1 percent); Union, (2.3); Holmes, (2.4); Madison, (2.5); Fairfield, (2.6); and Clinton and Logan, (2.7 percent).
Nine counties had unemployment rates above 7.0 percent during March. The counties with the highest rates, other than Morgan were: Vinton County, (13.3 percent); Adams, (10.2); Pike, (8.6); Jackson, (7.9); Hocking and Meigs, (7.5); Perry, (7.4); and Huron, (7.2).
Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)
Ohio's nonagricultural wage and salary employment, at 5,658,300 in March 2001, was down 800 from February 2001, according to the latest survey conducted by ODJFS.
Goods-producing industries fell 1,800 to 1,341,200. Manufacturing, at 1,066,400, was down 4,000. Declines in industrial machinery and equipment, electronic and other electric equipment, lumber and wood products, primary metal industries, and fabricated metal products were partially offset by gains in transportation equipment and rubber and miscellaneous plastics products. Increases among special trade contractors helped boost construction employment 2,100. Employment in service-producing industries advanced 1,100 to 4,317,100. Services rose 5,400 due to growth in most sectors. Small-to-moderate declines were noted in wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and public utilities, and finance, insurance, and real estate. Growth in local government was offset by declines in the federal and state divisions, leaving government employment unchanged.
Over the year, nonagricultural wage and salary employment expanded by 22,900 jobs. The service-producing sector was up 38,100. In services, up 23,800, significant growth was reported in business services, health services, and social services. Increased employment was also noted in government (+10,100), wholesale trade (+4,400), and finance, insurance, and real estate (+1,000). Retail trade declined 1,100, while transportation and public utilities slipped 100. Among goods producers, employment in manufacturing fell 23,000. Durable goods declined 18,100 due to reductions in industrial machinery and equipment, primary metal industries, and fabricated metal products. Among nondurable goods, rubber and miscellaneous plastics products and printing and publishing were significantly lower. Food and kindred products had a notable increase over the year. Growth in all sectors, especially special trade contractors, raised construction 8,300. Mining was down 500 from March 2000.
- 30 -
For more information contact ODJFS Communications, (614) 466-6650.
EDITOR'S NOTE: All data cited are produced in cooperation with the U. S. Department of Labor. Data sources include Current Population Survey (U.S. data); Current Employment Statistics Program (nonagricultural wage and salary employment data); and Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program (Ohio unemployment rates). Attached are monthly statistical summaries of the information presented above. More complete listings of the data appear in the monthly Ohio Labor Market Review. Unemployment rates for all Ohio counties as well as cities with populations of 50,000 or more are presented in the monthly ODJFS Civilian Labor Force Estimates publication. Updated statewide historical data may be obtained by contacting the Bureau of Labor Market Information at (614) 466-1109. April unemployment rates and nonagricultural wage and salary data will be released by ODJFS on Friday, May 18. This information is also available at http://jfs.ohio.gov. A complete list of monthly release dates for 2001 is available at http://lmi.state.oh.us under LAUS Current Labor Force Estimates.
Choose this link to view the table on the Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation.
Choose this link to view the table for the Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Estimates for Ohio.
To view the county
unemployment rates in Ohio, please choose one of the following links:
|
